There are variables in everything, two different development trends, Lei Hao feels that the variables are on this consultation meeting, but he doesn't dare to confirm it yet.
When Lin Anxi asked the next question, Lei Hao was more sure.
"Do you think that at this interest rate meeting, United Energy Storage will stabilize the current interest rate and exchange rate of the US dollar?"
Lin Anxi had a trace of expectation in the depths of his eyes.
"Yes" Lei Hao replied almost without thinking: "Based on the analysis of the current situation, the capital's view of the market outlook has been digested exponentially, the pressure of interest rate hikes is appropriate, and the US dollar exchange rate will at least stabilize the current level." ” "This" Zhang Qinfeng and Lin Anxi didn't expect Lei Hao to be so sure.
It is impossible for anyone to be sure of the operation of the financial system.
Just like this time the interest rate can be roughly divided into several situations.
The first is a negative expectation of interest rate hikes, and the dollar depreciates; the second is to reduce the pressure of interest rate hikes, and the dollar depreciates slightly; The third is to maintain appropriate pressure to raise interest rates and stabilize the market; The fourth is to amplify the pressure of interest rate hikes, and the dollar appreciates slightly; The fifth is to determine the interest rate hike and the dollar appreciates.
The first and fifth scenarios are the least probable and almost never happen.
From all the feedback received, the Fed subjectively hopes to achieve the purpose of the third scenario, in addition to this, whether the dollar appreciates or depreciates, the US economy will enter a period of correction, and correction has a cost.
The only thing that needs to be measured is what words should be used, who should make the announcement, and what kind of signal should be given.
Even the 19 members of the Federal Reserve who need to vote and have their voices heard are still unsure how much effort they should use.
Lei Hao gave a positive answer, which is equivalent to saying that he gave birth to a boy and a girl before he was pregnant, which is simply too magical.
"It's just a personal opinion, overall, I think after the Fed meeting, they can at least release a signal to stabilize the market."
Lei Hao also felt that he had said a little too much, so he explained a little, but his attitude was still obvious.
Even according to the prompts of the first future information, Lei Hao also knew that Lao Mei had handled this incident very appropriately, if it was according to the situation of the second time, it would be amazing, and the dollar package would appreciate.
But who caused the second situation, the variable should exist in Lei Hao himself.
Who wants the U.S. economy to fluctuate a little regardless of its size, the answer is that Lin Anxi's group is wrong, and it should be Lin Anxi's group and all those who make corresponding investment directions.
This includes Lei Hao.
Taking the change in the size of the interest rate hike pressure on the interest rate hike as a long-short duel, Lei Hao is part of the bulls, opposite him is the corresponding number of shorts, and Lin Anxi is also a member of the hope that the dollar will appreciate.
"I think the pressure to raise interest rates will be relieved a bit, and the Fed's willingness is not very strong."
Lin Anxi pondered for a moment and said: "First of all, from the perspective of the external market, even if the factor of the appreciation of the dollar itself is deducted, among the exchange rates of other currencies, the RMB depreciates and the euro depreciates."
Lei Hao listened to Lin Anxi's narration, and the clues in his mind were intertwined, outlining an outline of economic development, which is different from the previous one in that it contains the subjective initiative of most people.
In other words, the BOC's opinion is that according to the current development trend, the outcome of the Fed's interest rate meeting will depreciate the dollar, and if they participate, they may instead contribute to the stability of the US economy, but they want the dollar to appreciate to achieve political and economic goals.
It's very embarrassing, if I give a little force, it will lead to bad intentions and good deeds, I sit by and watch, the depreciation of the dollar is also a bad thing, so what should I do Even Lei Hao can see more things from the documents, for example, maybe the Fed group also sees this trend, so they accept the lobbying of the bulls, and it is a well-founded lobby, and then the final result is to stabilize the exchange rate.
The opinion of each of the 19 committee members is very important, maybe now the bears have the advantage, and in the end it will at least be the balance of long and short, their own goals It is definitely hoped that the exchange rate will rise.
It's Thursday, Lei Hao has invested as much as 200 million yuan in the market, and it is the principal, counting those leverages, the trading volume and contract face value he drove will exceed 10 billion, not to mention the long gap, even if it is a retreat, it will take him a few days.
Besides, the development of the situation is that the bulls are undefeated, so what else is there to consider, if you can attract more forces, then pull more together.
"But if the pressure of interest rate hikes is released, the dollar exchange rate will be affected, and the outflow of funds will hit the US economy, and now there is a shortage of money here, or rather, there is just enough money here, less or more, it will be affected" With a clear goal, Lei Hao began to explain: "Finance is a system of error correction, since everyone can see things clearly, the Fed will not be clear, they must be clear, they must also have a plan to deal with it, and I am optimistic that the pressure to raise interest rates will be increased, and the reason is very simple." ” "The appearance is an illusion, it is something that confuses other people, and the Federal Reserve, under the coercion of many forces and willingness, will definitely release a signal to at least maintain the existing pressure to raise interest rates.
"I think the current situation, on the contrary, makes the probability of the dollar appreciating higher than the probability of depreciation, the pressure to raise interest rates should increase, and it is likely to be overkill, in the end, the market is still volatile, but in the direction of the upside."
Lei Hao finally summarized and elaborated that Zhang Qinfeng and Lin Anxi all know all the laws of data and analysis that should be said, but what these two people recognize and are weaker than Lei Hao is the profitability of the investment field.
In terms of investment profits alone, Lei Hao is overwhelming, if he does not throw off his schoolbag, does not say some topics such as financial chaos theory, and only expresses his opinions from the perspective of investment, it will be more acceptable.
A self-made financial upstart, a securities investment master who earned a net worth of 10 billion yuan in one year, is his opinion worth paying attention to, at least, in the field of investment, it should definitely be included in the variable as an analysis.
Lin Anxi and Zhang Qinfeng think so, if Lei Hao talks about some theoretical things at length, they can't believe the views of a junior college student, but if it is market psychology and investment theory, looking at the world, Lei Hao should be the leader.
"I bet on the appreciation of the dollar, the corresponding investment direction, I invested 200 million US dollars in the market, the principal leverage is 100 times, before the end of the interest rate meeting, I will continue to push up" Lei Hao also knew very well where he could convince people, so he also concluded categorically.
When this sentence was finished, Lei Hao also saw Lin Anxi's eyes getting brighter and brighter as he wished
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