It has only been less than half a day since his fiancée Qiu Yuting arrived in the United States, but Lei Hao feels that things are smooth, who to meet and what to do, everything seems to be in order, and all the clues are straightened out in his mind.
This time he came to see Frank and his son, Lei Hao was to extend his tentacles for EI, but the abnormal fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate also made him aware of the role and some additional possibilities.
Moreover, when the intentions of both parties were preliminarily finalized, Lei Hao didn't need to speak, and Frank and his son began to ask questions and give various opinions with smiles on their faces.
The heat of non-agricultural data has passed, and the most eye-catching thing in the market now is the interest rate meeting, and everyone's topic naturally cannot escape this, and this is what Lei Hao wants to discuss.
"At present, the conversion speed of monetary assets is indeed slowing down slightly, and our opinion is that the Fed will definitely push up the expectation of interest rate hikes after the interest rate meeting, and the value of the dollar will stabilize, and the possibility of further increase is not ruled out, of course, the magnitude will not be large, and the possibility of depreciation is not impossible."
Frank and his son got what they wanted, and began to show their strength, with their status and social circle, a lot of things they had in their hands.
For example, everyone is an economist and an institutional consultant, and everyone knows the direction of operation of some institutions, and all kinds of data will be presented and communicated without anyone knowing, so Frank's group can have a specific understanding of the whole situation.
With these understandings, scholars give their opinions in turn, but they cannot say something similar to "how much so-and-so has invested in so-and-so in such and such a field, and how much is expected to open a position", which is a violation of professional ethics.
But without talking about the process, conclusions and opinions can be said.
"Why is it not tending to depreciate, under the premise of relative depreciation of several important currencies in the periphery, the Fed should not want to let the dollar appreciate at this time."
Lei Hao seemed puzzled, but asked tentatively.
"You know, the monetary policy of the United States is not like China's sorry, I don't mean anything else, but in fact, the global pressure on the value of the dollar is much greater than that of the yuan, and the Fed will release it if it can't withstand the pressure, which is a normal thing."
Frank Jr. picked up and said quite proudly: "Before today, I wasn't sure what the outcome of the Fed's interest rate meeting would be, but now, I can tell you very clearly that the expectation of interest rate hikes being pushed up is a high probability event, and things have changed." ” "External pressure" Lei Hao's face appeared in his mind, and he had a deeper willingness to snoop in his heart, but his level was not embarrassing, he couldn't see too high places, and the data at the bottom was useless.
Seeing the expression on Lei Hao's face, the corners of Frank's father and son showed a smile on their mouths, this is the meaning of their existence, there will be no absolute trust between institutions, but they need to do some understanding through certain channels, and the scholar circle and the consultant team came into being.
"The pressure to lower the expectation of interest rate hikes is not small," Lei Hao continued.
"Of course, some people want to raise interest rates, and some people want not to raise interest rates, but now the voice of interest rate hikes is loud, the data side is also supportive, the Fed wants stability, but there are always people who have the upper hand."
Old Frank replied with a very good eye.
Finance is a very complex thing, and sometimes you make corresponding operations, and the decision-making body may not necessarily operate according to your wishes, but the current situation is that the benefits of following the mainstream voice are greater than the risks, and the risks of not following the mainstream voice are greater than the benefits.
Then there's nothing to think about, anyway, the amplitude is not big, the fundamentals are also supportive, and if you add it, you will add it.
Lei Hao fell into thinking again, looking at him like this, Frank and his son had a feeling of pride.
In their opinion, Lei Hao knew about these things a little "in advance", so he was "shocked" and was weighing the operation of funds.
The more Lei Hao was "shocked", the more it seemed that the ability of their father and son was great, look, we can get so much information with a time advance, and we can analyze this economic trend in advance.
And Frank and his son are not very worried that Lei Hao will disagree with them, they have a seventy or eighty percent certainty about the increase in interest rate hike expectations, and the remaining two or three percent are to maintain a state of neither rising nor falling, what is there to worry about "When the results come out, I should be able to get more rights."
Little Frank thought to himself.
"If you eat my cake, you should know what I'm capable of."
Old Frank was proud, but also thought with some pity: "If I had analyzed this trend a few days earlier, I would have gotten nothing more from it." ” Old Frank's pity is not unreasonable, today is Saturday, tomorrow is Sunday, most of the financial markets are resting, but Monday and Tuesday are already the time of the Fed's interest rate meeting, and everything will be clearer.
This will lead to changes in the index, but there is not much trading volume, and there is enough space but not the corresponding volume, so there is not much effect left.
Lei Hao also saw this matter clearly, but he didn't have much money, and besides, the index would digest the pressure of seventy or eighty percent of interest rate hike expectations, and the remaining variables would be reflected, which was also a profit margin.
Others think that it is an event with a probability of seven or eighty percent, but here it is directly calculated according to 100%, and there is a second appreciation.
"The question is where is the variable for the second appreciation, just because I met President Lin and hired little Frank" Lei Hao was puzzled, and when he came back to his senses, he found the smile on the faces of Frank's father and son, and suddenly he felt a little strange in his heart.
"These two people don't think they've stopped me," Lei Hao thought funny, hesitated for a moment, and then said: "In fact, EI has invested all its money in the direction of increasing the expectation of US dollar interest rate hikes. ” Frank and his son were stunned.
"To be precise, all the money was invested."
Lei Hao continued.
Frank and his son's jaws almost closed.
"More than 200 million US dollars, according to yesterday's trading situation, our leverage is more than 100 times."
Lei Hao said again.
Suddenly, Frank's and son's cheeks flushed slightly, and it was because of shyness.
Make a yarn, I'm here to analyze and analyze with you, you are actually the same person as me, and I only determined the general direction today, but you have already finished the game, this difference is big.
They now want the index, and when the index digests the impact of the Fed meeting, the amount of energy will definitely recover again.
"If I had known, I wouldn't have talked about it."
Old Frank has a feeling of beeping a dog, if he knew that Lei Hao had already laid out, and the fool only mentioned the impact of the Fed's interest rate discussion, wouldn't this be equivalent to setting up a stage and asking Lei Hao to go up and perform: