People who know a little about finance know that there are two exchange rates for RMB, one is the onshore exchange rate and the other is the offshore exchange rate, and in the foreign exchange market, the trading volume of RMB is about 3ooo US dollars per day.
Among the 3oo0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 There are offshore RMB trading centers all over the world, how did 2.4oo come First of all, you buy a RMB futures on Hong Kong Island, the face value of the contract is 1o million US dollars, and the leverage can be up to 8o times, that is to say, 125o US dollars or directly at least 8ooo RMB can buy a contract by opening an account, which is the amount of 1o million.
In other words, the actual amount of about 3o billion dollars can reach a transaction volume of 2.4 billion yuan. 3o billion US dollars according to the current offshore exchange rate, is more than 2oo billion yuan.
However, sometimes, hedging between institutions and institutions is not born in the offshore RMB trading center, but through CFD, S and other methods, hedging on the platform of large institutions, and the institutions or hedgers directly hold positions on both sides and enter the two-sided market for the purpose of controlling risks or earning spreads for arbitrage.
For example, Lei Hao in HSBC's channel according to the 671oo US dollar to RMB exchange rate CFD operation, optimistic about the depreciation of the RMB, the call rate of 365, that is, 1/10,000 per day, if someone hedges with him, the exchange rate to 67114 or more is a drop of more than 1/10,000, even if Lei Hao makes money, he can even not close the CFD, to buy RMB futures, close the position, and then each contract handling fee of 8 yuan, a loss of 8 yuan.
From the point of view of onshore and offshore methods, the onshore RMB is more valuable than the offshore RMB, the onshore exchange rate is controlled by the central bank, which is almost a state of words, and the offshore speculation is fierce, once the onshore exchange rate is stable, there will be two states, one is that the central bank uses foreign exchange reserves to settle the spread between the offshore exchange rate and the onshore exchange rate, and the other is the distance between the two.
In either case, it is a situation that China does not want to see when it is financially marketed.
Therefore, international speculators have grasped the opportunity to suppress the RMB exchange rate, and even said that capital that is optimistic about the strength of the US dollar is shorting other currencies besides the US dollar.
Taking shorting RMB as an example, including the foreign exchange margin trading platform that China does not recognize, you can collect chips to suppress the RMB exchange rate through various channels, and under the influence of linkage, you don't need to enter the market directly, the platform will eat contracts on the trading center and its own platform at the same time to earn the price difference.
Many platforms and many channels have been extended in this way, and finally formed an operation to suppress the exchange rate, which is also the practice of Hong Kong Island Thunder and EI.
"The appreciation of the US dollar, if the internal and external conditions remain unchanged, it is equivalent to the depreciation of other currencies, which is something that everyone understands, but the foreign exchange market is very complicated, and everyone thinks the RMB exchange rate will go to 6869 or break 7" Yangcheng, Thunder Investment, a conference room, the screen wall is composed of eight small screens, and the small screen shows the situation of the conference room, which is composed of EI, Hong Kong Island Thunder, HSBC, Keda, Standard Chartered, Qingyu, Hanlong and Prudential.
Including the Thunder Investment Headquarters in Yangcheng, there are many people sitting in each conference room, including the managers of currency investment funds, scholars from the research and analysis department, and executives of institutions in charge of this field, all of whom are waiting to listen to Lei Hao's analysis.
Lei Hao had the documents in his hand, and in the middle of him and the screen wall were several executives of Yangcheng Thunder Investment, and now he needed to persuade several financial institutions that had been working with him to enter the market.
The international market has not assessed the renminbi's position very highly, with both traditional constraints and concerns about China's strong financial control.
Even though China is the world's second largest economy, its currency status does not correspond, and the simple example is that the renminbi settlement business is not so recognized.
There are difficulties, but the difficulties have long been reflected in the RMB exchange rate, each variable has already had its impact factor, what Lei Hao needs to do is to make everyone believe: under the premise of everyone's participation, this operation has a profit.
Finance, finance, how to finance Lei Hao without funds The funds that Lei Hao can use in the RMB exchange rate market are about 3 billion US dollars, which seems to be a lot, and the credit line given by institutions such as HSBC and Keda is enough for Lei Hao to use the money to operate.
It is quite reliable to hold the 3ooo contract for 3o billion, but this money is not enough, even if Lei Hao does not look at the future information, he knows that the opponent is just more than this number.
Moreover, in this kind of big battle, it is easy to have an accident in extreme operation, if you are seen to be about to blow up, the possibility of HSBC and Keda jumping back is almost 1oo.
So Lei Hao only has about $1oo billion in chips now, and he will triple the leverage if he calculates.
What's more powerful is that why the four guys of HSBC, Keda, Standard Chartered, and Prudential come to listen to Lei Hao's analysis of the market like primary school students is because Lei Hao's 1oo00 million chips are only stable with about four US dollars, and the other more than 2 billion liquidity, plus the chips held by the original more than 10 or 2 billion customer funds that can't move too much, are all in the short term.
Among them, more than 2 billion fast flow operations, Lei Hao completely used the channels of four institutions this time, without the slightest intention of concealment, quickly invested in various currency markets, and plundered profits around the clock.
Under the premise of huge pressure on the appreciation of the US dollar, the global foreign exchange market is also volatile, and Hong Kong Island Thunder and EI have reaped profits again and again, gathered sand into a tower, and the money they have made is 20 or 30 million US dollars a day.
This is very scary, because this is pure profit, even large institutions like Keda and HSBC are greedy, their daily income is several times this number, but many of them are customers, and even more are the profits of the channel, and the investment can only be compared with whom.
Compared with ordinary institutions, of course, it is half a catty, and compared with Lei Hao, everyone said that if they could compare, they would not come to the meeting.
"Lei, you should know that this time, you have no chance of winning, looking back at all the cases in financial history, basically every country has begun to implement financial marketization, there will be costs again and again, and it is also this time and again that the costs have been spent again and again, and their currency status has been forged."
"We can't pull out the money, and when the dollar rises, that's when the currency market starts to fluctuate violently, and the exchange rate of the pound, the mark, the yen, the franc and so many other currencies are moving, and you know, Europe is our home base, and we can make profits there."
"Keda's research institute gave an opinion, market investors have insufficient confidence in the RMB exchange rate, Lei, your central bank is strong and stable in the onshore exchange rate, which will make investor confidence frustrated, your central bank according to the market situation to distribute the middle price, but the winning side is too small."
"Lei, it's the North American guys who did it, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, AIG Besides, the bearish on the RMB here in the Asia-Pacific region is already the mainstream, the difference is just where it falls, plus the SHIBOR upward trend is obvious, our channel profits are actually very objective."
There were as many questions as Lei Hao imagined, but everyone's reaction was similar to what he expected.
Therefore, Lei Hao spread his hands and pouted: "I didn't say that I want to be stable, I just think that everyone should draw a line for the RMB exchange rate and draw a line where we can make a profit." ” Everyone immediately lifted their spirits
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