Looking at the performance of various stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, the overall trend is good, India rose by more than 20% last year, Thailand rose by nearly 20%, China's Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Island rose, and Singapore and Australia are all improving.
The reason is very complicated, just analyzing South Korea and Thailand, the rise of the KOSI index is unexpected, the capacity of the SET is too small, and the increase is mostly stimulated by the real economy, which is relatively stable.
The South Korean market has also come to a fork, with the analysis of the circle to explain, that is, the data is good, but the pressure is huge, and now the KOSI index has been oscillating upwards in the golden cross area.
There are also a lot of pressures, such as China's political and military conflicts, South Korea's business in China gradually shrinking, and problems in entertainment, tourism, and manufacturing, but due to the support of the securities market, there may be better than expected data at the end of the year.
North American institutions participate in the long Korean market, not only because they see opportunities, but also because they are mixed with political intentions, South Koreans are not stupid, they must keep their securities market good.
It is a virtuous circle that the securities market is improving, asset valuations are high, inflation rates are rising, money circulation is increasing, people are sharing the benefits, consumption is stimulated, the real economy is stimulated, and the securities market is being pushed back.
Therefore, financial institutions are very aware that the South Korean government needs the KOSI index to rise, but they will definitely make a move at a certain point to prevent the securities market from overheating and causing risks to get out of control.
IG, Wells Fargo, Han Li and other bulls are financial institutions, and the profit-seeking nature makes them think differently from the authorities, and if they can let the market rise out of control, they are not unwilling to try.
Thunder bearish outlook, technically dominant, KOSI index in just two months up 16, has become a mad bull, at this moment, how huge the pressure of profit-taking, three-year-old children want to get.
But if you look at the KOSI index from an E perspective, you will be surprised that the data is not too far off.
On the premise that the stock market is rising, the change in the proportion of price per share and earnings per share has not deviated from the track, what the hell is the answer to the depreciation of the won.
The overseas business of Korean companies occupies a very large proportion, and the depreciation of the won is equivalent to the fact that they have earned dollars, which is a number in exchange for the won, and when the won depreciates by 1, the income in this regard is almost 1, and then E2O times, this 1 can support 2O, and if the overseas business is 5O, it will support 1O.
Similar financial operations have blinded the market, and Thunder can't find much exposure to short the won in the foreign exchange market, because people are too lazy to hide it, and every step of the operation is clearly there.
As a result, South Korea's foreign exchange reserve system is losing money, but a series of financial exploitation methods such as bond holders and debtors "making money" and savers losing money are working smoothly.
An appropriate inflation rate, an appropriate currency depreciation, is a good way for the current economy of South Korea, and then they suddenly appeared, and the economy of the Republic of Korea is doing well.
Currency depreciation is what is that Under the premise of the economy improving, this problem is not a problem, as long as this positive situation is stabilized, the market outlook is promising, as for the financial system to bear greater risks, it is the government's business, if the situation is not good, everyone can impeach the president.
Bloodthirsty capital exploits ordinary people legally and compliantly, because the laws and regulations are written almost according to their will.
When the economy is improving and there is inflation, financial institutions will try to turn money into assets, and when the economy is deteriorating and deflation, financial institutions will try to turn assets into money.
The conversion of assets and currency is a means of exploitation, but in general, it is a matter of vision, taking China as an example, you can see through, you exchanged all the currency for assets ten years ago, and then go to see if those who save money into the bank, will there be a sense of superiority Lei Hao's voice is: In the short-term financial reincarnation, the South Korean market should enter the channel of adjustment and downward movement, eliminate systemic risks, and then pay the price.
Lei Hao's opponent said: This is not a small reincarnation, but a big reincarnation, the Republic of Korea is brave and invincible, just a few risks, we can stand it, brother will continue to rise, as for the things that will increase the risk if they rise again, it is the last coupon holder who dies anyway, and it is not good not to be the last coupon holder.
Monday's market seemed to be windless and waveless, but the Thunder's bullish position in the South Korean market quickly decreased, directly from 4oo risk exposure to 3.4 billion, representing a sharp increase in the likelihood of their bearish outlook.
In the Thai market, the SET index fluctuated, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Thai baht was 34o3oo, which was normal on this side, and the thunder held the Thai baht and bought the futures contract for the Thai baht for the US dollar, which seemed to be hedging, but in fact, it was hoped to build momentum to lower the value of the Thai baht, and then secretly collect more currency.
However, the capacity of the Thai market is not large, and it is destined to win or lose on the premise that the Korean market has attracted a lot of attention, and its victory or defeat has not actually had any impact on the overall situation.
What everyone wants to see most is the confrontation between the Thunder and the bulls in the Korean market.
"From a technical point of view, I have the initiative, but the opponent has the strength to influence the fundamental information, and in comparison, the winner is the loser."
In two years, one project after another, and one operation after another, Lei Hao's growth is also very fast.
No matter how stupid you are, if there are countless projects for you to participate in, plus the assistance of future information, as long as you are willing to work hard, of course, you can draw enough knowledge and experience from them.
Lei Hao used to feel tired because of lack of knowledge and experience, but now he feels tired because there are too many things, but gradually, from a lot of practice and learning, he also began to embark on a path that suits him best.
With future information, some things that are variables for others, certain quantities for Lei Hao, variables that some veteran institutions can manipulate, Lei Hao can't manipulate, and the advantages and disadvantages cancel each other, but he can follow the context of change and walk on the right path, which is the premise of creating miracles.
"It's changed."
Looking at the newspaper in his hand, Lei Hao felt a little helpless, "Originally, South Korea raised the economic growth estimate of O1, but now it remains unchanged, whether it doesn't want me to close the position smoothly or accumulate variables or is it a calculation" Economic data can be revised, like India's three brothers, there are many ways to count economic data, and even made jokes that the data is denied by the market.
Although South Korea has low self-esteem and arrogance, their credibility in the financial field is still good, and the credibility of economic data is relatively high, but as long as it is a human thing, there is room for manipulation.
Economic growth has remained unchanged amid a contraction in China, which in itself is a positive.
Lei Hao knew that this data should not be unchanged, but increased from 25 to 26, and in the end of the month of November, Smecta said that they were going to enlarge the move, which was originally a stimulus to KOSI.
Now that this stimulus has disappeared, Lei Hao can see that the opponent has begun to be cautious, and the information that should have been released, they have quietly accumulated.
If he hadn't known in advance, Lei Hao's analysis would have been wrong, but now, he can see the names of the South Korean authorities quietly appearing in the list of opponents
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