There is an inverse correlation between the bank's deposit rate and the bond price, with the former falling and the latter rising because the latter interest rate is fixed.
However, there is also the problem of inflation Based on the situation in the Thai market, as long as you are a financial practitioner, you can draw a conclusion with a little calculator: if the Bank of Thailand dares to lower the benchmark interest rate, Thailand's inflation rate will immediately rise.
Inflation is inflated, money is worthless, and bonds can also be said to be a kind of currency from another point of view, or to be precise, money is a kind of bond.
So the question is, money is worthless, and whether bonds are not worth much?
"The amplitude has become larger" Zhao Weihua's brains exploded, and he felt like he was being targeted by a fierce beast.
Although CCB has been suppressing Thunder from the beginning, Zhao Weihua is also full of confidence and ready to exercise his rights in a timely manner to harvest Thunder's bullish position in the bond market, but he did not expect that in just a few days, such a huge risk appeared in the market.
Yes, a rate cut will push up bond prices, but a rise in inflation caused by a rate cut will drive down bond prices, and in the end, come and go, betting on the size of the wave.
There is no doubt that bond prices will rise after the expectation of interest rate cuts increases, but Lei Hao was very thief in pulling up the bond index yesterday, more than 30 points, so that this time the market almost completely can't find room to go up.
But it doesn't matter, it stands to reason that CCB can exercise at the price of 2o spreads, and they are making money anyway.
However, the market outlook is risky, and if inflation is too high, bond prices will fall back.
The question is, is it the lower interest rate that makes bond prices more upward, or the higher inflation rate in the later period, which puts more downward pressure on bond prices "The rise of the SET index will only be temporary, in the stock market, after the STE index rises to a certain extent, there should be a U-turn downward trend, we can sell short at a high level, of course, the amount of energy must be insufficient, the company needs to value the most, is when the index falls, there are selling orders, we want to open a position, we have to absorb these selling orders."
"In the bond market, I need to ensure an inflated position of 2o points, waiting for the exercise of CCB, as long as they dare to take it, we will promote the expectation of interest rate cuts, let the stock market return, and also make the bond market bearish, when necessary, you can directly short the bond market, HSBC they still have chips to borrow."
Shanghai market, thunder, Lei Hao in the office to the Thai side of the trading department to give instructions.
Now the person in charge of Thunder in Thailand is Su Yongyan, he is Su Yiwen's nephew, but he also has two brushes, and he can be regarded as the company's veteran, who has been employed since the establishment of Thunder's Hong Kong Island branch last year.
As the veteran of Thunder, there is an attitude that is essential, that is, "listen to Mr.
Lei's words".
"However, the news from the Monetary Supervisory Commission of Thailand is not optimistic, and the forces pushing for interest rate cuts are strong."
In the video, Su Yongyan hesitated slightly.
"No way, Kunyu is playing with fire, and he can afford it."
Lei Hao shook his head.
The future information has hinted at the changes in the Thai market, and Lei Hao can also analyze many conclusions from this information.
Thailand now acts as Prime Minister General Barlow, and as a nephew of Barlow, Kun Yu is a financial elite who has his own ambitions, and he wants to revive the Thai economy.
However, the political situation in Thailand is very complicated, and Lei Hao believes that the expectation of interest rate cuts this time is something that Kun Yu led the Financial Supervisory Committee to do.
Thailand's capital forces hope to directly finalize the Bank of Thailand's reduction of the benchmark deposit interest rate before the market reacts, but the Financial Supervisory Commission saw that it was inappropriate and could not completely block the attack of the capital forces, so it simply released the pressure of interest rate cuts first.
This will lead to the impact of interest rate cuts in the market, and the stock market and bond market will change in response, so the idea of making profits from interest rate cuts will not only fail, but at least there will be a lot less room for interest.
As long as the contribution is proportional to the income department, the Financial Supervisory Commission can say that it will cancel the expectation of interest rate cuts, and Thailand's capital forces are likely to accept this proposal in order to maintain greater room for profit.
That's finance, and it's about political ugliness.
For Lei Ting, they have been laying out the Thai market during this time, and they have also established some contacts with Kunyu and other financial authorities, and Lei Hao can intervene in this matter, provided that the market moves in the direction of his analysis.
"The SET index will rise, and now the Thai baht is still at a relatively low level, Siam and other financial groups are pumping funds to make up for speculative losses in the international market, and the Thai baht is being quickly replaced by US dollars, and the currency flows into our hands, I am bullish, and SET will definitely rise."
After instructing Su Yongyan, Lei Hao turned his head and began to communicate with Kun Yu again.
In fact, this kind of thing is very easy to analyze, Thunder is a big organization, and it knocked the capital forces of the United States in the South Korean market, and Lei Hao has been used to this day.
Thunder's opponent in Thailand temporarily has a partial vacuum, so Lei Hao and the opponent have a tacit understanding, Siam sells chips, gets Thai baht, in exchange for US dollars, to make up for the paper losses in the international market, Thunder absorbs chips, and at the same time exchanges US dollars for Thai baht, and uses the profits of the international market to promote the layout of the Thai market.
This is a tacit understanding, in this case, other people want to intervene, how can it be so simple Lei Hao wants the SET index to rise, and financial groups such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan, and Siam will be secretly happy, and will sell some chips at a high level.
Lei Hao will not go to the high level to take over, but will be short selling like the opponent, the premise is that the SET index falls, and he also believes that the opponent does not dare to hedge with him at the high level, and it is strange that the SET index does not fall when the two parties sell short at the same time.
On the whole, the high level is when the expectation of interest rate cuts reaches its peak, and at this point in time, all capital forces will be entangled.
Looking at the demand of all parties, the Thai authorities represented by Kun Yu hope to cancel the expectation of interest rate cuts and let the Thai market unfold more smoothly, which will make the stock market fall and the bond market should also have a strange price pullback.
The goal of the Thunder and the Thai authorities is the same, but other capital forces will not be too willing, and the financial institutions such as Siam, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan that have dealt with the Thunder hope to reduce their positions at a high level in exchange for funds to settle the losses in the international market, and the local capital forces in Thailand hope to cut interest rates and take money from the banking system to make money.
In this case, Lei Hao felt that CCB would exercise its rights, and they would take the bond position and then explode.
On December 18, when Thunder once again raised the point of holding bonds by more than 2o points, Zhao Weihua was so angry that his liver hurt.
I thought that the option contract was a rope around Lei Ting's neck, but now this rope was used by Lei Hao to fish, and it was still the foreign exchange and storage business department of CCB.
Thunder gave a trick to the latecomers who participated in the foreign exchange and savings business, how can 2o points in a market with small capacity, I can raise the price of bonds, so that your option terms do not work at all.
But there is a disadvantage to this, that is, the thunder will absorb more bonds, after all, it costs to maintain a high level, but the bad thing about the CCB foreign exchange and storage business department is that if they dare to exercise their rights, Lei Hao's excess bonds will definitely have to look for opportunities to sell, and then the pit will be
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