Up to now, Lei Hao actually doesn't need information with such a long time span, because it's useless to know it.
With the magnitude of Thunder's funds, Lei Hao actually changed the future when he knew the future.
In other words, the future is uncertain, you say that a certain index rises, I throw tens of billions of dollars into it, and he has to rise if it doesn't rise.
Therefore, for Lei Hao, the trend is not the first thing to know, what he wants to see is the situation of quantity and information.
For Lei Hao, the larger the time span of information, the more variables there are in the middle, and in the back, the result is basically not the result.
Besides, whether the Thunder need to know the direction of the dollar on a certain day in May of the following year in mid-December, the answer can be yes, but it is also no.
Closing the relevant exposure is very simple for Lei Hao, and he will not lay out this situation 5 months in advance, so this message seems a bit chicken.
This night, Lei Hao was a little puzzled, and the next day, after further contact with the Reserve Management Department of the Foreign Exchange Bureau, he was faintly nervous in his heart.
"China is reducing its holdings of US dollar assets" from the various document signals transmitted by the Reserve Management Division, Lei Hao analyzed this.
This situation is not difficult to analyze, and even Yu Rong and others, after knowing some of the actions of the Reserve Management Division, can come to the same conclusion.
It is also normal for China's foreign exchange reserves to begin to reduce the proportion of US dollar assets.
What many people don't know is that although foreign exchange reserves are used to mark data in US dollars, they are a whole and are not entirely composed of US dollar assets.
For example, if China has 3 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, it may have the equivalent of 1ooo US dollars in sterling assets, or it may have the equivalent of 1ooo US dollars in yen assets, but whether it is British pound assets or yen assets, they will be calculated according to the exchange rate and written in US dollars.
This is the foreign exchange reserve.
"According to the analysis, after the year-end effect passes, there should be a January effect, which falls first and then rises, and the market is still quite healthy."
Lei Hao's analysis of the market outlook came to mind: "The next structural adjustment of the exchange reserve is to reduce US dollar assets, which is in line with the downward trend of the US dollar. ” "However, the dollar cannot go down indefinitely, and the United States will definitely have countermeasures next, which is also in line with the trend of the dollar returning to shock."
"The dollar fell first and then fluctuated, and then the Fed is going to do something again, why tell me now that there will be a dollar depreciation event in May?"
What Lei Hao doesn't understand is this, the future is not immutable, but sometimes, certain things will definitely happen, such as the sun rising in the east.
The two sides of the current communication of future information can be said to be the current Lei Hao and the future "Lei Hao", that is to say, the depreciation of the dollar in May is a certain amount.
"Regardless of why the dollar is depreciating, why is it important to know this," Lei Hao's brain cells were about to die, but he had a faint premonition in his heart: "Could it be that this is a real black swan event?"
The so-called black swan event is a very unpredictable and unusual event, and the real black swan that people in the circle say means that no one can calculate.
Things like the subprime mortgage crisis and the Asian financial crisis are not black swan events in the absolute sense, because there are traces to follow, before the subprime mortgage crisis, in fact, many institutions began to short, and the Asian financial crisis is better understood as an event detonated by capital forces.
At Lei Hao's level, only natural disasters are unpredictable, and even only natural disasters can be predicted.
"If it's a natural disaster," Lei Hao shuddered.
If the market is clearly improving, but you buck the trend and go short in anticipation of a natural disaster, then the problem is very serious.
Why are you shorting, it's obviously bullish, do you know something, if so, do you have some connection with Uncle Beard, if it's a natural disaster, it will also cause suspicion.
"But," Lei Hao's eyes flashed with a confident look: "I am the main force in the market, if the result is confirmed, what I want to do is just to make the company's operation look reasonable." ” "Bucking the trend, as long as I am the absolute main force, I am the trend, there is no so-called contrarian trend," Lei Hao gradually understood in his heart.
Maybe things will change, but on his own, he feels that this message is very important and requires a lot of preparation for it.
Looking at the global financial market, various economies such as China, Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region have their own demands, and China has shifted from the stage of holding US dollars to reducing the process of holding US dollars, promoting the internationalization of the RMB, and wanting Chinese capital to go global.
The Belt and Road Initiative, the Maritime Silk Road, the AIIB and other projects are all in the service of China's strategic goals.
Europe has been engaged in de-dollarization, no matter which European country, does not want the world to continue to be unipolar, and the showdown in the financial field is manifested in the Europeans' desire for the rise of the euro.
It's just that the current United States is still suppressing the world, and no country is his opponent, which is manifested in the financial field, that is, the Federal Reserve sneezes, and the world's financial markets will catch a cold.
Therefore, de-dollarization must pay a price, no matter who strives for the national currency to have a higher position in the international market, must pay the price of the depreciation of the dollar assets in the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, unless you first close the exposure, that is, short selling.
For China's $3 trillion, the closed exposure is simply a joke, as long as the central bank dares to move, the Fed will dare to turn its face, so basically only let financial institutions such as the Thunder take away the exposure to hedge with the central bank.
However, judging from the actual data, the depreciation and appreciation of the dollar are almost in the hands of the United States itself, and as long as they are willing to pay the due price, it is only a matter of one sentence to make the dollar appreciate and depreciate.
"It's too risky, it's something that has the potential to provoke a financial war."
Lei Hao felt very entangled.
When the strength is weak, the future is certain, and when the strength is strong, the variables you represent are too large, and the future is not certain.
If you think about it with your toes, you can know that the change in the value of the dollar is controlled by the United States, and if you identify a trend, and you invest enough money to make the other party change the trend, then the trend you determine will not happen.
The dollar is depreciating, so you sell short, 100 million billion, come casually, the profit and loss are not big, if you get 180 billion in, the United States will pinch its nose to stabilize the value of the currency, so that you can enjoy the iron fist of the hegemon.
But when it comes to the current status of the thunder, if you want to sublimate it, how can you not risk it Maybe this is also the reason why the information was passed on 5 months in advance, this is an opportunity.
Lei Hao was embarrassed
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