Penang, Malaysia.Xiao Bai, Cui Mingda and others walked out of the terminal, and Luo Yonglin hurriedly stepped forward to say hello.He had been waiting at the airport for more than half an hour, and the flight was slightly delayed."
Xiao Dong, I'll send you back to the hotel first?"
After the greetings, Luo Yonglin took the group to the car."
Go to the company first, don't rush to the hotel."
Xiao Bai thought about it and decided to go to the company first.At present, the Penang company is still full of orders, and the improvement of production technology and technological level has in turn contributed to the continuation of this situation.In the company and workshop, Xiao Bai saw a busy scene, everyone seemed very confident, and it seemed that such days could last forever."
Mr.
Luo, what is the current inventory of the company's raw materials?"
Xiao Bai inspected it for a while, and was anxious that Luo Yonglin and the others had a small meeting.He first paid attention to the company's inventory situation, and asked Luo Yonglin and others to compress the inventory, and the raw materials could be prepared for 45 days of production maintenance.Luo Yonglin: Because they didn't have to worry about orders before, raw materials, spare parts, etc. would generally be maintained for at least 90 days, saving them the trouble of frequent procurement.Second, Xiao Bai asked to reduce the liquidity to maintain the company's operation, and all the excess funds were converted into US dollars and deposited in a safe fund account."
Okay, Xiao Dong, I'll do it."
Luo Yonglin didn't understand Xiao Bai's intentions very well, but since the boss had given the order, he could just follow it.Xiao Bai also arranged a number of other measures, in short, to prevent losses caused by large fluctuations in the local currency.After settling these things, Xiao Bai returned to the hotel to rest.At night.Wong Yaguang called and said he knew that Xiao Bai had arrived in Penang.But it's a pity that he is currently in the mainland and can't get together with Xiao Bai."
Huang Dong, we are our own people, you don't have to be polite.In addition, I would like to discuss with you, we will not distribute this year's profits for the time being, and the profits will be retained for the second half of the year. ”Xiao Bai's meaning is very clear, that is, to preserve his strength as much as possible.When the impact of the financial crisis is over, if you have a large amount of dollar assets or even cash, then you might as well enter the market to buy the bottom, whether it is raw materials, spare parts or some other assets, the price will be much cheaper than now."
Uh-huh, I agree.I have just withdrawn a lot of funds from some projects recently, and I don't need dividend relief for the time being. ”Huang Yaguang also made a joke, in fact, he had already figured out what Xiao Bai had told him, and he had already begun to take profits on many projects.Xiao Bai didn't say much, and continued to chat with the other party for a few words before hanging up.The next day, Xiao Bai personally visited several big customers and flew to Bangkok in the afternoon of the same day.This time, Jiang Yifan was not there, and Yingsheng Investment's left-behind personnel in Bangkok rented a few cars to pick up people at the airport.Xiao Bai and Qin, Han Weiguo and others stayed in the hotel, and Cui Mingda lived directly in the apartment rented by the company, in order to grasp the first-hand information as soon as possible.Xiao Bai was not idle, and the left-behind personnel of the Investment and Financing Department collected a lot of information, mainly on the macroeconomy.On the surface, everything looks fine, and Thailand's economy remains strong.In 1995, Thailand's per capita income exceeded $2,500 and the World Bank classified it as a middle-income country.There is no doubt that Thailand's economic performance in recent years has been outstanding, even among the Asian Tigers.As an Asian country, Thailand is not conservative in its economic operation model!
They are deeply influenced by liberalism, trust the Washington Consensus, and as a result, actively promote free markets in economic development.In April 1990, Thailand formally accepted the relevant obligations under the IMF Agreement and lifted the restrictions on international payments under the current account.The following year, Thailand began to reduce foreign exchange controls on capital account transactions, especially in 1993, Thailand made important measures in the capital account: first, the opening of offshore financial business, the launch of the Bangkok International Financial Arrangement BIBF.Under this arrangement, 15 licensed Thai commercial banks and 35 foreign commercial banks can absorb deposits and borrowings from abroad.The second is to allow non-Thai residents to open Thai baht accounts in Thai commercial banks to make deposits or loans, and they can be freely convertible.At present, everything in Thailand is following the neoliberal development model, reform and growth are going hand in hand, and everything seems to be going so well.However, in just a few years, Thailand has transformed from an agricultural exporter to a manufacturing exporter, with a rapidly upgraded industrial structure, semiconductors as a pillar, and a rapidly growing tourism industry, and a good economic situation.Although the stock market is somewhat volatile, it is inevitable that there will be pains in the throes of reform.Overall, the development performance is very good.No one realizes that Thailand's current stock market has peaked, and if you want to return to this point, it will be 17 years later. ”Xiao Bai rubbed his temples and put down the data in his hand.In recent years, funds from abroad have shown a trend of short-term floating funds, which are becoming more and more difficult to control.Moreover, a large amount of foreign capital has poured into the real estate market and the stock market, which has greatly pushed up real estate prices and stock prices, and asset price bubbles have become very obvious.In 19931996, real estate prices in Thailand rose by nearly 400, and the SET index also peaked at 141033 in January 1996, reaching an all-time high.Since then, real estate and stock markets have turned down, putting huge pressure on bank assets.According to statistics, in June 1996, the non-performing assets of Thai commercial banks reached 178 trillion baht, and the non-performing assets ratio was as high as 358.Thailand's foreign trade, on which it relies most, has also encountered considerable difficulties.Since 1995, the US dollar has entered the appreciation channel, because the Thai baht is pegged to the US dollar, and the appreciation of the US dollar has caused the Thai baht exchange rate to continue to rise, resulting in a setback in Thai exports and a slowdown in economic growth.Thailand's GDP growth rate in 1996 is forecast to be 565, which is not low, but it is important to know that the GDP growth rate in 1995 was 812.There are all kinds of signs that something bad may be about to happen!
But at the moment, the Thai government is caught between a rock and a hard place, as its policy choice is tied to a fixed exchange rate regime: to boost economic growth, Thailand needs to implement expansionary monetary policy.If you want to control inflation and make up for the current account deficit, you need to raise interest rates.After thinking about it, the Thai government finally decided to raise interest rates to maintain the peg to the dollar, fearing that abandoning the peg to the dollar would lead to a depreciation of the Thai baht, an increase in the domestic debt burden, bankruptcies, job losses, and a rise in the non-performing loan ratio of financial institutions.At the end of 1995, the deposit interest rate and loan interest rate of Thailand's domestic financial institutions reached 12 and 1,375 respectively, which was not only the highest in Asia, but also more than twice the international average.The high interest rate policy has further suppressed investment and consumption, exacerbated the recession, and further worsened the non-performing assets of commercial banks, adding to the woe-wrenching Thai economy.Thailand this egg has a sewn.By the end of 1996, Thailand's external debt was US$93 billion, equivalent to 50 percent of GDP, of which short-term external debt accounted for 60 percent.The fragile financial system, the prolonged deficit and high inflation have finally caught the attention of international capital.On the third day of Xiao Bai's arrival in Bangkok, the market changed dramatically.International tourists, represented by Soros, began to launch a tentative attack on the Thai baht."
Brother Xiao, according to the information we have obtained, international investment institutions borrowed up to $15 billion in forward Thai baht contracts with a maturity of up to $15 billion from the Bank of Thailand, and then sold them on a large scale in the spot market, resulting in a sharp change in the Thai baht exchange rate, which triggered the turmoil in the financial market in the past few days."
Cui Mingda took a copy of the information to Xiao Bai, and at the same time pointed to various curves on the computer screen and gave a detailed explanation to Xiao Bai.This office is also rented by Yingsheng Investment, located in Bangkok's financial district, although the area is not very large, but the facilities inside are very complete."
Lao Cui, keep staring, I think the international tour capital will not succeed this time."
Xiao Bai felt that it was impossible for the Thai side to have no resistance at all, and it was too early to say who would kill the deer.This is the first time that there has been a massive sell-off in the baht, which is now trading at its lowest level against the US dollar in a decade at 261843 to 1."
Well, it remains to be seen what the baht will do next, let's see how the Bank of Thailand reacts later."
Cui Mingda nodded, opened the refrigerator and threw a can of Red Bull to Xiao Bai, and then he continued to sit in front of the computer to track and analyze.In the evening, the Bank of Thailand announced the injection of $2 billion in foreign exchange reserves.As expected, the exchange rate of the Thai baht quickly stabilized and the situation seemed to be under control.This tentative attack ended in the failure of international funds.The losses on Soros's side alone amounted to more than $10 million.However, the old fox in New York smiled, he had already got what he wanted, and behind the apparent strength of the Bank of Thailand, it turned the exchange rate attack from hidden to open."
Lao Cui, you pay attention to a few signals, especially when the Bank of Thailand raises short-term interest rates sharply, you must be careful of international travel funds."
Xiao Bai was too lazy to accompany Cui Mingda to keep an eye on, and in the next two days, he took Han Weiguo and others to visit all over Bangkok, and then experienced the last glory of the Four Little Tigers.Two days later.The meeting of central bank governors of Southeast Asia was held in Bangkok.The meeting agreed to jointly intervene multilaterally or bilaterally in the event of a currency crisis.At the same time, the Bank of Thailand announced an increase in interest rates and once again stressed that the Thai baht will not depreciate.And Xiao Bai left Cui Mingda in Bangkok, and he took Qin, Han Weiguo and others to return to Shencheng via Xiangjiang.This time is different from the year when he blocked the pound, Xiao Bai obviously has some more concerns, and the biggest concern is the impact of it.Therefore, Xiao Bai's Yingsheng Investment and offshore companies did not participate in this active attack on the Thai baht.And he doesn't have a baht in his hand at the moment, so he has a step ahead of others, so he avoids someone from making a stamp about this matter in the future.