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506 Liu Shenguo predicted again: The Soviet Union will disappear within ten years


The reasons are unassailable.Tan Lin looked at Liu Chunlai, and this answer made him unable to refute for a while.People set up factories in order to transfer labor, in order to attract single girls around them to work in their factories, and to create opportunities for single men in their jurisdiction to have the opportunity to get married."

Contracting Changfeng Factory can also transfer labor.You have contracted, and the recruiter can leave some places for you" Tan Jian Center despised Liu Chunlai, and he didn't believe what Liu Chun said at all."

Isn't it good for us to run our own factory?

Can Changfeng move to our brigade?

Even if we could, we already had a textile mill, so why waste money by repeating the construction?

”Liu Chunlai was not polite at all.Tan Lin saw that Liu Chunlai's attitude was getting worse and worse, and he also knew the reason.Tan Jianzhong went to college, and he was naturally arrogant.Especially after listening to Liu Chunlai's review for six consecutive years and not being admitted to university, coupled with He Yanjun's praise of Liu Chunlai in front of him, Tan Jianzhong was naturally unconvinced."

Comrade Jianzhong, Comrade Chunlai is reasonable, any enterprise needs to assume a certain social responsibility.In the spring, there are many people in their brigade, although they can go to work in factories in other places, but how can they work near their homes?

Especially some of the old and the young" With Tan Lin's words, Tan Jianzhong naturally couldn't say anything more."

Comrade Chunlai, what do you think about enterprise contracting?"

Tan Lin couldn't talk about anything else, and went straight to the topic.Liu Chunlai was very surprised, he didn't expect Tan Lin to ask himself such a question.Enterprise Contracting!

This is a pilot project that has been carried out in many places across the country.On the Shancheng side, Liu Chunlai contracted the hemp spinning workshops of the Sequoia Garment Factory and the Changfeng Textile Factory, all of which belonged to the pilot projects in Shancheng.As one of the top cities in the country's light industry, there are many factories in the mountain city that are sluggish.Is the other party researching this piece?

Since the other party is studying economics and a college student in the 50s, and now he is a professor at a university, it is natural that there will be a lot of research topics.Decision-making by local governments requires theoretical research.Otherwise, this would not have been asked.Liu Chunlai pondered for a while, and there was no need to hide it in this matter.After organizing some language, he spoke: "The local governments have contracted out some sluggish enterprises in order to let capable people go to the factory, save these factories, ensure the income of the cadres and workers in the factories, and even provide new jobs."

However, in this process, it is very easy to lose state-owned assets," Liu Chunlai knows: In the 90s, more state-owned enterprises were in recession, and the scope of the contract system expanded a lot.In this process, most of the factories are contracted by management cadres, and eventually these people turn the assets belonging to the state into private ownership through various methods.Since Tan Lin is studying this topic, let him know in advance."

Loss of state-owned assets?

The factory is contracted out for the right to operate and manage, and the assets are all owned by the state," Tan Lin frowned.Liu Chunlai didn't elaborate, but he could understand the problem inside."

For example, in the hemp spinning workshop of Changfeng Factory, if we don't have enough business, and in the contracting process, we have to pay the contracting fee, and when we can't pay it, what should we do?"

Tan Lin's face became serious.Tan Jianzhong wanted to say something, but looking at Tan Lin's seriousness, he didn't say anything in the end."

In this way, there is a big difference between factory contracting and rural land contracting?""

It's completely different.In the countryside, apart from land, the collective does not have many assets, and even the tools of production are not very many.In the past, the various bases for collective production were distributed to each household according to the brigade or even the production team. ”Liu Chunlai shook his head.It is impossible for Tan Lin not to know the difference.He asked this with his purpose.Liu Chunlai naturally knew it, so he still answered.Immediately, he introduced how the brigade divided various collective assets when the production was contracted to the households.Liu Chunlai himself is not very clear, but his father led these things single-handedly.He naturally knew it."

Seven or eight households share a cow, and a family also has a sickle and a hoe?

Is there no other means of production?

”Tan Lin looked at Liu Chunlai with some incredulity, "In other places, there is no such poverty." ”He also spent time in the countryside.In other places, it is not as much as seven or eight households to share a ploughing ox.When there is no machinery, paddy fields and soil, if they are dug by manpower, the efficiency is naturally low, which requires ploughing cattle.Often a cow with a plow and a harrow, "Poor, our place is like this, seven or eight households are divided into one ploughing ox, it is good, the poorest production team, a production team is only three or two ploughing ox" Liu Chunlai sighed.These things are very clear in my memory.When the fourth child did not go to high school before, he was in junior high school in the commune school, even if he lived in the school, because the old lady could not serve the crops in the field every day, and when it was Liu Chun's turn to feed the cattle at home, the fourth child had to go home to cut a back of grass either before the end of the morning self-study or evening self-study.Liu Chunlai did not deal with the fourth child, and there were also reasons for this.Even if Liu Chunlai is at home, it is impossible to herd cattle and mow grass," Professor Tan, in fact, it is a very good thing that the state proposes to contract.In the past, all factories were ordered by the state, and production was planned according to the plan, regardless of the quality, anyway, it was drought and flood to ensure the harvest After the reform and opening up, the country must be in line with the world, which must make the domestic change in the direction of marketization.Many factories, backward technology, low production efficiency, in the past, because of the government, even if the products produced have quality problems, they still have to pay, which is not in line with market competition" "Do you understand marketization?

”Tan Lin was a little surprised.Since the beginning of reform and opening up, the state has proposed that the domestic economy should be transformed towards marketization.But what is marketization?

A lot of people don't know.Including him, a professor specializing in university economics, does not have a clear understanding of marketization.Seeing that Liu Chunlai was silent, Tan Lin said with a wry smile: "When we learned this, economics had not yet developed to the current level.What's more, after we have studied, the country has come from the planned economy, that is, because of the state's plan, our country can develop to the present initial completion of industrialization when it is poor and white. ”"Professor Tan, the economics textbook you studied at the beginning was from the Soviet Union, right?"

Liu Chunlai asked Tan Lin instead."

Huh?"

Tan Lin was puzzled.What does this have to do with the USSR?

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Western countries naturally did not import technology to China because of problems in the state system.Since the beginning of the First Five-Year Plan, various technologies have been imported from the Soviet Union, and the industrial base has been gradually built and industrialization has been initially completed.Tan Lin: When they went to university, it was the time when the country overfulfilled the "First Five-Year Plan" and further started the "Second Five-Year Plan", and at that time, Sino-Soviet relations were very good.Therefore, it is normal that the teaching materials came from the Soviet Union."

The economy of the Soviet Union is different from that of Europe and the United States.The Soviet Union followed a state-planned economy, while Europe and the United States were guided by the market, and the two sides had different economic systems because of their different state systems. ”Liu Chunlai didn't want to hide it.Through this little exchange, he has already discovered the problem.Tan Lin and He Yanjun have different ideological concepts.He Yanjun wanted to go abroad because he wanted to have a more intuitive understanding of the market economy in the Western world.In such a short conversation, Liu Chunlai could understand from Tan Lin's demeanor and language that the other party was unfamiliar with the market economy, and even hoped that the country would always implement a planned economy.How does this work?

The planned economy can no longer keep up with the country's development.Because of the country's reform and opening up and the gradual transformation from a planned economy to a market economy, China has become the world's second largest economy in less than 40 years.In less than 50 years, it surpassed the United States to become the world's largest economy."

The planned economy, with the state's macroeconomic regulation and control, is not prone to problems.There is a problem with what the country needs to invest in what direction?

”Tan Lin asked Liu Chunlai.This is the most difficult for him to accept.If it wasn't for the state's plan to build atomic bombs and intercontinental missiles back then, where could they be done so quickly?

In the absence of any foundation, not even money, the state has done all this in just a few years, so that the people of the whole country can straighten their waists, this proves the feasibility?"

In a certain period of time, the planned economy has an irreplaceable role.Why should the country reform and open up?

It is because the planned economy cannot solve the problem of the people of the whole country having enough food and clothing, and running to a well-off life!

”Liu Chunlai sighed.Rao is a professor of economics, and because of the limitations of the times, he can't understand the problems in between.Seeing that Tan Lin was confused, Liu Chunlai asked him: "Professor Tan, is the Soviet Union strong?"

”"Definitely!

In many fields such as military science and technology, it even surpasses the Western world. ”Tan Lin's face was even more puzzled.The USSR stomped its feet, and the earth trembled.People have already started to move into space.I don't know how far China is from the Soviet Union."

When I talk about economic issues, let's not talk about military and science and technology, but only about the economy."

Liu Chunlai didn't know if Tan Lin and the others understood the current situation in the Soviet Union.Now relations between China and the Soviet Union are not very good.On the Sino-Soviet border, the Soviet Union still has a display of military power that makes people can't sleep."

Economy?

The economy is the foundation of science and technology, and the Soviet Union has begun to take the lead in science and technology, so the economy will naturally not be too bad" For the Soviet Union, Tan Lin, like many people, is admired.economic base, which determines the superstructure.Without money, scientific and technological research, etc., naturally it will not be able to continue."

What do you think if I said that within ten years, the Soviet Union would collapse because of its economic collapse?""

It can't be!"

Not to mention that Tan Lin didn't believe it, even Tan Jianzhong snorted coldly.Just kidding!

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The Soviet Union, which made the Western world almost desperate, was so powerful that the earth could no longer stop the development of the Soviet Union.Will it disintegrate in ten years?

There is no possibility.Not to mention ten years, even a hundred years, it is impossible.A strong country cannot die out."

Uncle Chunlai, the Soviet Union even surpassed Western countries in military strength, how could it collapse!"

Even Liu Zhiqiang had to be silent.Uncle Chunlai is good at everything, but sometimes he talks about it and talks nonsense.Go out and say this, and you will be killed."

You don't believe me?

Otherwise, let's make a bet and bet ten dollars!

Within ten years, the USSR would have disappeared. ”Liu Chunlai's face was calm.For the current USSR, he learned only from history, as well as from various documents.At this time, the Soviet Union was at its peak.The pace of development has entered space.People's space stations are already under construction.In this regard, the entire West, led by the United States, is lagging behind."

Why?

Do you know how strong the Soviet Union is now?

”Tan Lin asked Liu Chunlai.Liu Chun said it, but he didn't believe it at all.The USSR was so strong, how could it disappear in ten years?"

The USSR was strong, and this was recognized by the whole world.In many fields, it has even surpassed the whole world, especially in the field of space, but there is a problem, the economy of the Soviet Union cannot support space research and a large number of military investments," Liu Chunlai sighed.He came and could witness the strength of the USSR.Not long has passed, as if it was yesterday's "Western 81" military exercise, the Soviet Union dispatched hundreds of thousands of people and tens of thousands of tanks, claiming to have swept across Europe in eight days.This open military exercise allowed the whole world to confront the military power of the Soviet Union for the first time.The whole of Europe has been trembling because of this exercise.As a person who has come over and read countless articles about why the Soviet Union collapsed, how can Liu Chunlai not know that this is the peak of the Soviet Union?"

Why can't the Soviet economy hold up?

Their people are richer than ours. ”Tan Lin was a little angry.Liu Chunlai is completely nonsense.If this is the case, does the Western world need to be afraid of the Soviet Union?"

My grandfather is accurate in fortune-telling or something!"

Liu Qianshan said on the side, "My grandfather said that the Soviet Union disappeared in ten years, so it must disappear!"

”Liu Chunlai was almost so angry that he vomited blood.P, this dog said!

Everything has to be done to fortune telling."

Yo, if this is the case, if the Third World War breaks out and let Captain Liu go to other countries to calculate, won't we be safe?"

Tan Jianzhong looked sarcastic.Feudal superstition, that's unacceptable.In socialist New China, there is no soil for the survival of feudal superstition.Liu Chunlai glared at Liu Qianshan, "Shut up, if you don't speak, no one will treat you as a dumb person." ”He didn't bother to pay attention to Tan Jianzhong's ridicule."

Professor Tan, what I said is based on the analysis of the current situation in the Soviet Union, and it is not a fortune-telling or anything."

Liu Chunlai explained.I'm not a god.The collapse of the Soviet Union because he was a person who came over, knew the results, and also looked at the reasons analyzed by others.Not many people may notice it now, but the fact that the country has abandoned the model of the Soviet Union shows that the domestic top brass has seen the problem.It's just that no one thought that the ultimate fate of the Soviet Union would be disintegration, and not just poverty."

Then tell me why."

Tan Lin suppressed his anger, and a smile appeared on his face.