Hearing Yang Jing's words, Cesar and the others all nodded excitedly.
Since the end of the last London gold investment action, Cesar's trading is not only limited to the London gold market, they have been obscure in the past few years, and began to shift the focus of their work to the major stock markets and foreign exchange markets, so they know very well that compared with the gold market and major stock markets, the investment in the foreign exchange market often needs to be laid out for a longer time, and once the foreign exchange market is successfully invested, then although the harvest is huge, it also takes a relatively long time to harvest the benefits.
In the foreign exchange market, a relatively large and purposeful investment often takes several months or even half a year, and the one year that the boss said is not very long in the face of such a large amount of funds.
"Okay, boss, since you take care of us so much, then we will take over the trading task of this investment operation!"
Hearing Yang Jing say so firmly, Cesar didn't want to say more in this regard, so he made a decision directly.
"Good!
Now that you've taken on this mission, I'm going to talk about a specific plan of action. ” Yang Jing greeted everyone present, and these people followed Yang Jing into an operation room on the first floor that was specially used for trading.
The room was converted from a large bedroom, measuring more than 30 square meters, and contained several connected workstations, each with a telephone and a fax machine, and most notably a desktop computer on each desk.
This is a very peculiar computer, of course, this peculiar shape is for Yang Jing, for Mike Ale and Cesar, this computer is extremely advanced and sci-fi.
"Wow, boss, are these computers the 286 computers that were only launched by IB in July last year?"
Albert recognized the identity of the desktop at a glance.
Yang Jing smiled and nodded and said, "That's right, these five computers are the latest computers launched by IB last year, and they use TEL's 80286 processor."
At present, it is a state-of-the-art civilian computer.
Cesar, you all know how to operate this, right?
” Cesar and the others all nodded, indicating that they would operate the fresh machine.
In fact, even if there are computers at this time, the real application in civilian areas is still very narrow.
After all, in this era, the Internet is only used in the military, and the civilian network has not yet been seen.
Without the Internet, no matter how advanced your computer is, it is useless.
Without the internet, the computer would be like a 100-meter world champion who has lost his legs.
"Boss, these computers are only suitable for calculating all kinds of data now, and transactions have to rely on telephones and fax machines."
Cesar pointed out the limitations of these computers in a single sentence.
"I understand that I bought these computers for you to facilitate your work."
Clapped his hands, attracting the attention of the team members who were fiddling with the computers, "Guys, are you still satisfied with the environment here?"
” Several people nodded with satisfaction, although this is not the most professional trading room, but the conditions are very good, even if you work here for a year, it must not be so uncomfortable.
"Okay, since you're all happy with the conditions here, I'll start talking."
Yang Jing looked at a few people and motioned for them to sit down, then he said: "This time, we only have two investment targets, one is the yen and the other is the dollar.
What you need to do is short the dollar and long the yen. ” Cesar nodded in understanding and said, "Boss, can you explain it specifically?"
” "That's fine.
Presumably, you must have a deep feeling about the continued strength of the dollar in recent years, right?
” Albert said with a wry smile: "That's right, boss, the strength of the dollar over the years and the high interest rate policy of the US government have kept the dollar running at a high level, to be honest, several of us are now worried about how long this situation can last."
The dollar's strength is intimidating, in your words.
It would be too dangerous to continue this state of affairs. ” Yang Jing snapped his fingers with satisfaction and said, "Albert is right.
In fact, I also think that the dollar's high operation should not last long.
This state of the US dollar has seriously affected all kinds of unfavorable situations in the United States, and even the major countries in Japan and Europe have been greatly affected, and if the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a catastrophe.
Therefore, I think the depreciation of the dollar has reached the stage where it is inevitable. ” Yang Jing's finger tapped on the table and continued: "In fact, such a situation did not occur in a day, but was caused by a series of stupid decisions made by the Washington authorities over a period of seven or eight years.
As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the dollar because of the large trade surplus between Ben and Germany with the United States.
Although it was only a verbal statement by the US Treasury Secretary at the time, it also triggered a crisis of dollar depreciation, and from the beginning of 1977 to the fall of 1978, the dollar depreciated by more than 40 in just over twenty months!
This frenzied devaluation alarmed the Carter administration, and President Carter enacted that stupid 'dollar saving package' to get the dollar back in value. ” Carter's plan should have been relatively sensible at the time, but Carter probably didn't expect that it would not be long after the implementation of this plan, because the outbreak of the Iranian Revolution led to the second oil crisis, coupled with the strong appreciation of the dollar at this time, which led to serious inflation in the United States.
Cesar smiled and said: "Boss, I know what you said, inflation in the United States was very serious at that time, otherwise Paul Volcker, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, would not have urgently raised official interest rates three times in a row and implemented a tight monetary policy at the beginning of his administration. ” Yang Jing smiled and nodded: "This is a typical foot pain, headache doctor, Paul Volcker's continuous increase in official interest rates is indeed to curb inflation, but on the other hand, it has caused a series of unfavorable situations."
Because of the increase in official interest rates in the United States, a large amount of foreign funds have flowed into the United States, which has directly increased the value of the dollar by 60 in just five years!
One of the direct results of the rapid appreciation of the US dollar is that the US government has incurred a large fiscal deficit and the trade deficit has further widened. ” "Therefore, a country's economy should not be a headache, but a comprehensive consideration, such as the Carter administration and the Reagan administration, the final result is to create the current situation that is difficult to ride the tiger."
And what is even more ridiculous is that the Reagan administration, which has just been re-elected, does not seem to care about the current situation at all, and on the contrary, President Reagan, who has been re-elected, will add fuel to the fire.
As far as I know, the comprehensive tax cuts that Mr.
Reagan has been orchestrating are about to be introduced, and the plan to increase US military spending has been approved by the US Congress, and US defense orders have skyrocketed.
What does this create?
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Quite simply, once the tax cut policy is approved by Congress, the US economy, which was originally in a low-speed growth state, will soon enter a high-speed growth channel under the dual stimulus of tax cuts and national defense construction. ” "With a huge fiscal deficit and a high dollar, if the domestic economy is overheated, it is obviously out of place, or even an irreconcilable contradiction."
Mike Aller also interjected on the side: "Yes, on the one hand, the trade deficit that is unavoidable because of the strength of the US dollar is getting bigger and bigger, and on the other hand, there is a surplus of domestic production capacity in the United States.
"As a senior accountant, Mike Ahler has a thorough understanding of the macroeconomic aspects.
Yang Jing smiled and gave Mike Ale a thumbs up as a sign of appreciation.
In fact, what Yang Jing just said is only a fundamental reason, once the Reagan administration's tax cut policy + plan to increase US military spending is fully launched, then a huge speculative crisis will immediately hang over the head of the United States.
After World War II, the world's economy slowly moved towards integration, and the policy of closing the door could no longer adapt to the rapid economic development.
The global economy has entered a situation where the whole body is affected.
As the most economically powerful country in the world, the United States has always been the vane of the world's economy, once the Reagan administration's tax cut policy + plan to increase US military spending is fully launched, then it can be expected that in New York, Tokyo and major European foreign exchange markets, the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies in the world will definitely continue to rise in an all-round way; On Wall Street, the U.S. stock market will also jump upwards like a bull holding its strength.
The U.S. economy will immediately show a boom, and the outlook for the U.S. economy seems bright.
But while the U.S. economy is thriving, the rest of the world is doing badly.
The Soviet Union and other socialist countries are basically in a state of self-circulation, the situation of developed countries such as Benjamin and Western Europe is average, and the developing countries in Latin America and East Asia have begun to grow at a high speed, but many domestic unstable factors still need to be improved, such as the war in Cambodia and the change of regime in South America, which have discouraged many foreign investors.
At a time when global investment opportunities are uncertain, the U.S. economy is suddenly bright, and many foreign investors are quickly mobilizing capital and flocking to the U.S. market.
In the words of Soros, a well-known financial speculator in later generations, if financial investment is too active, market speculation factors will increase, financial "bubbles" will gradually increase, and the vulnerability and danger of the market will naturally increase with the further activity of investment.
Soros was able to dominate the global financial speculation market in later generations, and his vision was naturally not ordinarily strong, and since he saw that the US economy was actually in a process of moving towards danger, he naturally would not give up such a good opportunity.
Before preparing for this investment action, Yang Jing consulted a lot of information, among which Soros had a very detailed explanation of the speculative process of the depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the yen at that time.
At that time, Soros made a sharp evaluation of Reagan's economic policies from the perspective of financial investment.
Soros clearly pointed out that this is a policy that is "worth considering", and it is undeniable that this policy has stimulated the US economy, but the degree of stimulus is too large, and the US economy may backfire and go too far.
Soros has called the "Reagan Cycle" the economic development triggered by such well-intentioned economic policies that can do bad things.
The "Great Cycle" is due to stimulating economic growth, but the influx of foreign capital into the U.S. financial market will lead to a rapid increase in the U.S. economy's borrowing and liabilities to foreign countries as a whole.
At this time, if the influx of foreign capital continues, the cost of foreign borrowing and debt in the United States as a whole will increase, and at the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the US financial market will be relatively reduced, and when the debt approaches the cost or even exceeds the cost of the source of foreign capital, some inconspicuous factors will burst the financial "bubble" that has already appeared at any time.
In the financial markets, the dollar will fall as quickly as it did at the beginning.
Foreign funds that poured into the US market for the sake of huge speculative profits naturally fled in the hope of "falling" and quickly withdrew from the US financial market.
The consequences of this are serious, and the drastic changes in the financial markets will cause the US economy to rapidly move into recession, and the overall economy will shrink sharply.
The terrible thing about the "Great Cycle" is here, starting from revitalization, and returning to the state of non-revitalization or even decline due to excessive stimulation.
In Soros's words, that is, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase in the money supply in the financial market will cause the economy to overheat, and they are afraid that higher interest rates will cause the economy to cool down rapidly.
As a result, stocks affected by low interest rate policies were left out in the cold, and stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policies were bullish.
This is a very dangerous market move.
In fact, the outlook for the economic boom led by the Reagan policy is not optimistic, the dollar will rise too much and will inevitably fall, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the cooling of the economy is also expected.
Not to mention Soros, even when they talked to Cesar and them just now, Cesar and they made it clear that they were frightened by the current situation of the dollar operating at such a high level, not to mention those financial predators who specialize in financial speculation?
Everyone can see that in order to prevent the United States from falling into a terrible economic crisis because of the Reagan administration's economic stimulus plan, the Federal Reserve and the awakened US government will inevitably take action to cool down the US economy and the US dollar.
It's just that these speculative financial predators probably can't guess when the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will make a move.
But Yang Jing knows!
In September 1985, just over a month away, the famous Plaza Accord would be signed