In a market, all influential people are bearish, then it must fall, everyone is betting on the magnitude of the decline, but due to risk control, the amount of energy can not explode.
Only when there is a serious divergence between long and short, can the amount of energy have a chance to explode.
After the non-farm payrolls data comes out, the long-short divergence will appear, because the bearish is amplified.
Now the dollar index is hovering a little above 99, and its strength is due to the fact that the market has digested all the negative fundamentals and technicals, and when the non-farm payrolls data is slightly worse than expected, it will definitely break 99.
But there must be huge divisions between institutions and institutions, and even within large institutions, and these differences are not enough for them to throw their chips into the market completely, but internal hedging is certainly possible.
Yenching time, Friday, February 2nd.
"I want to increase my position" When Lei Hao said this, there was a moment of silence in the board of directors of Yajintou, and then, almost everyone began to make small calculations.
"Ray, you should know that there is not much energy in the market right now."
As the executive director of Keda's expatriate to Yajintou, Rui's eyes were firm, but there was a trace of turmoil in his heart.
"Keda has it, HSBC has it, and Standard Chartered has it."
Putting his eyes on the bodies of several directors, a smile appeared on the corner of Lei Hao's mouth: "They can have." ” There was silence in the conference room again, and everyone remembered their ambitions and goals for Yajintou.
In the financial circle, the risk exposure of large institutions is generally not too large, but the profitability of large institutions is very terrifying, which involves a way of operation that is not so friendly to laymen.
For example, Keda has subsidiaries and funds all over the world.
What happens when fund A of institution A is bearish on a certain target, and fund B of institution B is bullish on the same target, and fund A of institution A and fund B of institution B both have the shadow of Keda The answer is to open hedged positions, and then the investors of both funds are customers, so some customers make money and some customers lose money.
As a large institution like Keda, it not only earns a fee, but the company or fund that makes a profit can also be used to promote a wave, which is all-in-one.
Interestingly, Fund A and Fund B are certainly under different layers of regulation, which is a multinational financial institution.
This model is very complicated to implement, but in general it is the method of operation of appeals, and in the end, suppressing the news of losses and publicizing profit cases is what large institutions often do, but the parent company earns a fixed percentage of the matching business fee.
As long as the brand does not fall, the brand will not fall, as long as the brand does not fall, the big institutions will never fall, investors take a slightly excessive risk, but the big institutions will definitely make money.
However, Company A Fund A and Company B Fund B are taken out separately, they are all wholeheartedly operating funds for investors, I am indeed bearish or bullish on the market outlook, but failed, so what is the way to which someone is always successful This has led to the emergence of a phenomenon that is the internal competition system of large institutions.
As long as it is a multinational financial group, there is fierce internal competition, and the directors of this group of directors are all Asia-Pacific factions, including senior executives of Keda Asia-Pacific Branch and HSBC Greater China, and they are Asia-Pacific factions anyway.
The Asia-Pacific faction, the European faction, and the North American faction are the three most powerful factions in the financial world, among which the Asia-Pacific faction is weak.
So as soon as Lei Hao's words came out, everyone understood in their hearts that this was an opportunity that everyone had expected.
Lei Hao's foundation is in the Asia-Pacific region, and he is naturally a collaborator of the Asia-Pacific faction, as long as he is in charge of the Asian financial investment, which is inextricably related to large institutions, he will sooner or later propose a similar plan: internal hedging.
The risk of throwing chips into the formal market is of course too high, but if two institutions with institutional holdings have cognitive differences with each other, what does it matter?
merely "Everyone knows very well that the North American economy has been warming up since the second half of last year, although dragged down by the first half of the year, the annual report data is average, but the impact on the non-farm data in January will not be too great, although the dollar in the international market is under downward pressure, but more to release the pullback pressure of the previous rise."
"In this case, the decline is limited."
"North America is unlikely to counter the dollar index at this time, and normally speaking, it is a high probability event to let it rebound after the pressure is released."
"The original analysis conclusion was to estimate the recovery and see if there was a chance to press back."
"At this point in time, we are increasing our exposure to short selling, and we are taking more risks."
The board of directors of Asia Financial Investment is also a group of elites in the financial circle, and everyone can certainly see the current market situation.
The U.S. dollar index, or even any currency index, changes with the economic situation of the home country, but it will affect the economic development of the home country in the past.
In the second half of last year, or even the whole year, the North American economy bottomed out and rebounded, with obvious signs of recovery, so the dollar index has the meaning of recovering the 100-point mark.
But judging from the overall situation, if you are in North America, I will be affected in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, and it is strange not to hold you back, and there are also considerations in this regard for selling dollar assets.
January is the time point seized by most capital forces, everyone is not optimistic about the decline of the US economy, but just said that the current economic situation in North America is not worthy of the US dollar index of 99, if you are 99, the money will go to your side, and I will play with an egg.
So the fall is certain, everyone tacitly unites to suppress Uncle Sam is obvious, but the decline cannot be too big, because the economy does not allow it, and the attitude of Lao Mei is also very clear, they need to temporarily make the dollar strong and inject some vitality into their hollow economy.
At this time, Lei Hao still wants to continue to sell short, and the pressure will not be small.
"It's a very simple question from a purely economic point of view, but finance is not just an economy."
Lei Hao raised his finger and said, "Because of this, the market will be full of variables." ” Lei Hao's words silenced the directors.
Yes, the senior management of qualified financial institutions will definitely not analyze the trend of the financial market only from the economic side, but from ancient times to the present, only the economic exhibition is easier to analyze, and who can understand other things "Ray, don't play with us, you should know that we are a team."
Feeling the eyes of several colleagues focused on him, Lu Yi was full of helplessness, and said something to ask for advice: "You tell us the analysis conclusion, and we will help you with other things, yes, this is the reason why Yajintou was established, and it is also its operation mode." ” "Middle East, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, South America, Eastern Europe."
Lei Hao said a few regional names, and saw the eyes of the board members begin to light up.
"If you're optimistic, we can give it a try."
After a long time, the board of directors finally took a stand
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